Data center electricity demand could grow at a compound annual rate of 24% through 2030, but power infrastructure availability will determine how much computing capacity developers can actually bring online, according to McKinsey's Global Energy Perspective 2026. Sam DeFabrizio, a McKinsey partner, said that in all of the firm's most likely scenarios through 2030, power supply falls short of IT compute demand. Developers are increasingly turning to on-site gas engines, turbines, fuel cells, and battery storage to bypass utility construction timelines, though competition for pipeline infrastructure could cause delays. More than 60% of operators now view their strategy as combining on-site generation with grid access, DeFabrizio said.
A 24% compound annual growth rate in data center electricity demand through 2030 would place enormous pressure on power infrastructure that already faces permitting delays, transformer shortages, and limited construction capacity. The finding that supply will lag compute demand in McKinsey's most likely scenarios means developers face hard constraints on expansion regardless of capital availability. Planning decisions made now, including on-site generation investments and grid interconnection strategies, will shape the industry's capacity to meet AI workload growth for years beyond 2030.
A McKinsey forecast projecting 24% annual power demand growth for data centers through 2030 is a high-authority quantitative signal that will shape investment and policy decisions industry-wide. This specific McKinsey finding and its 24% figure do not appear in the already-published list.