Split in 2025, Opposed by Most in 2026: Inside the Fast Turn in Public Opinion on Data Centers
In August 2025, Heatmap Pro and Embold Research asked 3,741 registered voters whether they would support or oppose a data center being built near them. The country was evenly split: 44% in favor, 42% opposed. A year later, with the question worded the same way, 75% were opposed and only 4% were strongly in favor, down from 13%. Other pollsters, using their own questions and samples, have recorded the same direction through 2026, with opposition to a local data center landing between 61% and 75% depending on the poll. Gallup's first reading, in March, put it at 71%, compared with 53% for a nuclear plant in the same survey; opposition to a local nuclear plant has not passed 63% since Gallup began asking in 2001.
The turn, in five polls
Heatmap's own series is the cleanest because the wording never changed. Opposition was about 42% in August 2025, 51% in February 2026, about 70% in May (with 55% strongly opposed), and 75% in August, when more than six in ten were strongly opposed. Emerson College found a similar slope among likely voters: 42% opposed to an AI data center in or near their community in December 2025 and 63% in a July 19 to 20 poll, with 27% in support and 10% neutral, according to Newsweek's report of the survey. The Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania found 49% opposed in a spring wave and 61% by mid-July, with support falling from 21% to 14%; the center called it the largest shift on any AI question in its surveys. In mid-September, PBS News, NPR and Marist found 65% of registered voters opposed to construction in their own community, 43% of them strongly. That is higher than the 58% who said new construction by large tech companies would have a mostly negative effect on the country.
The turn shows up at the state level too. A Washington Post and George Mason University Schar School poll of 1,101 Virginia registered voters, taken March 26 to 31, found 35% comfortable with a new data center in their community, down from 69% in 2023. Northern Virginia is the largest market on the Digest's own map. Support for tax breaks for data centers that create at least 1,000 jobs fell from 61% to 37%, and 67% of those polled said the state's sales-tax exemption should end, against 26% who would keep it.
What changed in people's minds
Pew Research Center's American Trends Panel shows the shift as a change in perceived effects. Between January and a July 20 to August 9 survey of 10,548 adults, the share calling data centers mostly bad for the environment rose from 39% to 54%, for home energy costs from 38% to 50%, and for the quality of life of people nearby from 30% to 49%. About 4% called any of those three mostly good. Local jobs and local tax revenue, the benefits developers cite most, drew a split verdict: about 22% called each mostly good, while the share calling them mostly bad rose from 15% to 24% for jobs and from 12% to 21% for tax revenue. The cost side of the ledger gained new believers; the benefit side did not.
Pew also found 60% not too or not at all comfortable with a new data center in their area, and 7% extremely or very comfortable. Awareness rose over the same months: 35% said they had heard a lot about data centers, up from 25% in January, and the share who had heard nothing at all fell from 25% to 12%. The survey cannot say whether attention drove opinion, but the two moved together. The movement crossed party lines: the share of Republicans calling data centers mostly bad for nearby quality of life rose from 24% to 42%, and among Democrats from 37% to 57%.
What people say worries them
Gallup followed its March poll with an open-ended question in April to 2,054 panel members, asking supporters and opponents to explain themselves in their own words. About two-thirds of supporters cited economic benefits, including 55% who named jobs and 13% who named tax revenue. Opponents gave a wider range of reasons. Half cited excessive resource use, including 18% who named water and 18% who named energy. Another 16% cited pollution, such as noise and air or water contamination. About one in five raised quality-of-life effects such as population growth, traffic or land use, and a similar share cited economic costs such as higher utility bills and building costs. Most of the remaining opposition came from general or specific concerns about AI itself.
A November 2025 YouGov survey of 1,000 Americans, designed by Harvard's Stephen Ansolabehere just before the turn, suggests why quality of life can outweigh the electric bill. Two-thirds of respondents expected a nearby data center to raise electricity prices and 58% expected more pollution, yet support sat near neutral on a zero-to-one scale, at 0.51, between an auto factory (0.57) and a petrochemical plant (0.37). Nearly two-thirds also expected a data center to create long-term jobs, and a similar share expected economic growth. When the analysis weighed all the factors together, perceived effects on community quality of life were about three times as important to support as any other single factor, electricity prices included. People who expected a data center to lower prices were 36 percentage points more likely to support it, but that gap roughly halved once the other factors were included.
Heatmap's August 2025 poll tested arguments directly. The most convincing case for a data center was construction and operating jobs, which 63% found very or somewhat convincing, followed by local tax revenue for schools and services. The argument that data centers are needed to win the AI race with China scored far lower, at a net of plus 4. The most convincing case against was large electricity use raising utility bills (net plus 46), followed by heavy water consumption (net plus 34). Heatmap's reading was that tangible local effects mattered more to respondents than abstract ones. In Virginia, the Post and Schar School poll found 57% saying data centers are hurting home energy bills and 59% saying they are harming the local environment.
Who opposes, and where the politics moved
The opposition is bipartisan but uneven, and the Republican shift is the sharpest. In Heatmap's August 2025 poll, net support for a nearby data center was plus 14 among Republicans, minus 5 among independents and minus 8 among Democrats. A year later, Republicans were underwater by 43 points, independents by 65 and Democrats by 75. Annenberg's July numbers show a narrower gap, with 69% of Democrats, 54% of Republicans and 53% of independents opposed, and Gallup found 56% of Democrats, 39% of Republicans and 48% of independents strongly opposed.
Education draws a sharper line than geography does. Emerson found 79% of respondents with a postgraduate degree opposed, up 27 points since December, against 72% of college graduates (up 25) and 37% of those with a high school education (up 9). Annenberg found opposition at 70% among adults under 30 and 57% among those 65 and older. Place matters less than might be expected: Heatmap found rural voters underwater by 63 points, with urban and suburban voters only a few points more supportive, and PBS, NPR and Marist found opposition above 60% in big cities, suburbs, small towns and rural areas alike. Familiarity with AI does not predict it either. Annenberg found 64% of people who had not used AI opposed to local data centers, against 60% of heavy users, and said baseline AI use did not predict later opposition.
The politics are already visible, weeks before the November midterms. In Pew's September 28 to October 4 survey, 61% of registered voters said they dislike political leaders who support building data centers near them, and 8% said they like such leaders. Among Democratic candidate supporters the dislike figure was 75%; among Republican candidate supporters it was 44%, with 42% feeling neither way.
What the polls can and cannot say
Question wording explains part of the spread between 61% and 75%. Annenberg asks about new local data centers, Emerson about AI data centers in or near the community, Gallup about AI data centers in the local area, Heatmap about a data center near the respondent, and Pew about comfort. Only a few of these are true trend lines, meaning the same question asked repeatedly: Heatmap's four waves, Emerson's two, Annenberg's two, Pew's two, and the Virginia comparison with 2023. The rest are single readings that add context but not direction. All of them record attitudes toward hypothetical or generic projects, not reactions to a specific proposal with specific terms, and none shows how those attitudes translate into approvals or denials. On that side, PBS reported that Data Center Watch counted at least 75 projects worth roughly $130 billion blocked or delayed in the first quarter of 2026.
Little in the published polling tests what could move opinion back. The Harvard survey found that people who expect lower electricity prices are more supportive, and Heatmap's 2025 poll found that renewable power and local jobs persuaded some respondents, but those results predate the turn, and whether they still hold is an open question. What the data do show is a majority position that formed within about twelve months, across parties, ages, education levels and kinds of place, and that rests, in Gallup's open-ended answers, on resource use, pollution and local quality of life more than on any single issue.
States in this story
- Heatmap — “Heatmap Poll: Only 44% of Americans Would Welcome a Data Center Nearby”
- Heatmap — “Exclusive: 75% of Americans Now Oppose Local Data Center Development”
- Gallup — “Americans Oppose AI Data Centers in Their Area”
- Pew Research Center — “More Americans now say data centers are negative for the environment, energy costs and more”
- Pew Research Center — “Widespread dislike of political leaders who support building data centers in their area, particularly among Democratic voters”
- Annenberg Public Policy Center — “Opposition to Local Data Centers Rises Sharply”
- PBS News — “Voters don't like data centers. They really don't like them close to home”
- Newsweek — Report on Emerson College's July 2026 poll on AI data centers
- Harvard Salata Institute — “On data centers, local vibes matter more than electricity prices – poll”
- Anchorage Daily News (from The Washington Post) — “In this U.S. hot spot for data centers, voters have turned against them”